That has a tendency to reverse the following week so we may see some pullbacks merely because of that. The bears are dismissing the strong earnings by claiming that the bar was lowered to such a degree that it is no big surprise that reports are surprising to the upside. We have a good test of the bulls coming up today: They have to show that option expiry was not just a fluke and that they can generate a real breakout of substance. At some point the "fade-the-breakout" play stops working and the folks who have been successful with that play suddenly become short-squeeze fuel. We should continue to have good trading opportunities for those who focus on the smaller-cap stocks but that doesn't mean there isn't substantial risk. Once that happens profit taking will kick in and it will be time to take a more defensive stance.

Investors had few qualms about buying smaller leadership and momentum stocks. That is where the action is and that is our key measure of market health at this time.

The time to worry will be when breadth deteriorates and the small-cap stocks begin to stumble. Once that happens profit taking will kick in and it will be time to take a more defensive stance. For now the upside momentum continues but it isn't in the big brand names that the popular media like to focus on. It is in the in the little tiny stocks that are largely ignored like Phazar ANTP:Nasdaqa small stock that's been trading on much higher-than-normal volume.

Early indications are slightly negative this morning as we await the weekly unemployment data. European markets were upbeat overnight as financial and health care stocks did well but the weak dollar kept the pressure on Asian markets.

The market shrugged off a steep spike in crude oil prices yesterday but its ability to do that won't last forever. Crude is down a bit this morning but we'll have to keep an eye on it. Mõnede küsitletud analüütikute arvates oleks palju sobivam suharv vahemikus Kus aga olid need analüütikud 2 aastat tagasi?

Börsipäev 22. aprill

Kas me peaksime neid uskuma praegu, kui 2 aastat tagasi kinnitasid nad meile kooris, et tegemis ON kasvuaktsiaga? Põhjuseks hea positsioon Euroopas, lootus CDMA suhtes paari järgmise aasta jooksul ning viimaseks tundub neile, et Nokia infrastruktuuri äri ei saa minna enam halvemaks.

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I hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend. It certainly flew by quickly.

The question on everyone's mind as we start of full week of fun and games is whether this market is finally undergoing a major change in character.

Earnings reports were expected to be rather gloomy but overall they are coming in quite a better than expected so far and that is what has been proving a positive tone for this market lately. The bears are dismissing the strong earnings by claiming that the bar was lowered to such a degree that it is no big surprise that reports are surprising to the upside. Even if reports are a bit better than expected the bears still feel it is premature to expect that any major improvement in the economy is imminent.

The bulls counter by saying that the market is forward looking and that there are signs that the second half of the year will be better.

Börsipäev 16. detsember

They claim that the market is going to show signs of improvement well before the economy because it will begin pricing in and discounting improvement well before it actually occurs. In fact, the bulls say skepticism and worry about whether the economy is getting better is exactly what we need in order to climb higher. The technical situation is certainly supportive of the bulls right now.

The uptrend that started in mid-March is firmly intact.

NBIX Share Option Tehingud

The Nasdaq, led by tech stocks, is the strongest of the indices and is poised to hit its highest levels since January. It has been turned back a couple times at the plus area recently but volume has been building over the past four days and it looks ready to break that resistance and produce another leg up. There is little resistance up to the area once the Nasdaq is through One of the hallmarks of the bear market is how often a technical breakout has merely been a trap for the bulls.

Breakouts have been viewed by the bears as shorting opportunities, not covering points. The simple fact is that in a bear market, breakouts just don't bring in enough sustained buying to generate the momentum to keep things going.

At some point the "fade-the-breakout" play stops working and the folks who have been successful with that play suddenly become short-squeeze fuel. So that is the key this week -- how does the Nasdaq act on a breakout?

NBIX Share Option Tehingud

Does it attract sufficient momentum money to produce another leg up or does it attract the fade-the-breakout crew who are looking for yet another failed bear market rally? In the early going we have some carryover of the positive mood from Friday.

NBIX Share Option Tehingud

My impression was that option pinning on Friday helped generate a little momentum once the market got running a bit. The path of least resistance was the higher strike price and we saw a lot of stocks move up to those levels.

That has a tendency to reverse the following week so we may see some pullbacks merely because of that.